After several years of uncertainty, whether consumption is “recovering” has become a recurring topic in the market. While some data points show signs of rebound, consumer confidence has not fully recovered. Beneath this apparent fluctuation lies a deeper question: are we witnessing a cyclical recovery, or a structural rebuild of consumption? The answer will likely shape business decisions over the next three to five years.

From a macro perspective, the conditions for a broad-based recovery are not yet fully in place. Cautious income expectations, weakened wealth effects, and rising awareness of household debt have made consumers more restrained in their spending. Even when overall consumption shows growth, it tends to concentrate in essential and high-certainty categories rather than rebounding across the board. The old logic of “a rising tide lifts all boats” is increasingly difficult to replicate.

At the micro level, consumer behavior is undergoing profound change. Price sensitivity has increased, but this does not simply mean chasing the lowest price. Instead, consumers are asking a more fundamental question: is it worth it? Rational decision-making, restraint, and delayed purchases are becoming the norm. People are still willing to pay for products that genuinely solve problems, deliver long-term value, or provide emotional stability, while remaining highly cautious of hype-driven, short-term consumption. This shift reflects a reorganization of consumption structures rather than a simple recovery.

Meanwhile, consumption stratification is accelerating. Premium consumption has not disappeared, but has become more restrained; mass-market consumption emphasizes cost-performance and practicality; and the middle segment is increasingly polarized. This “dumbbell-shaped” structure makes it difficult for brands to serve all consumers with a single positioning. Precision, focus, and strategic trade-offs will be critical operating principles heading into 2026.

At the same time, the logic of brand competition is being rebuilt. Traffic-driven growth is giving way to trust-driven growth, and short-term conversions no longer guarantee long-term value. Consumers are extending their evaluation period of brands from the first experience to sustained performance over time. This demands systemic capabilities in product consistency, service reliability, and value communication—rather than reliance on viral hits or heavy promotions.

It is also important to note that consumption has not stopped “upgrading”; rather, the nature of upgrading has changed. The focus is shifting from “more expensive” to “more suitable,” from outward display to inward experience, and from owning more to using better and longer. This form of upgrading emphasizes functionality, health, emotional well-being, and a sense of security over symbolic status. For brands, the real challenge lies in understanding these subtle yet powerful needs.

Viewed from the threshold of 2026, it may be more realistic to embrace consumption restructuring than to wait for a full recovery. Recovery addresses the issue of volume, while restructuring determines direction. Only by understanding how consumers are reallocating budgets and redefining value can businesses find sustainable growth paths in the new cycle.

The conclusion may be understated but clear: the consumption market of 2026 will not return to the past, but it will reach a new equilibrium. Companies waiting for old models to come back may miss the opportunity, while those that adapt early to structural change and invest in long-term trust will be the ones that truly endure.