In most people’s investment mindset, returns come first: how much was earned, how high the yield was, and whether it outperformed others. However, as the financial environment enters a phase of heightened uncertainty, this return-centered logic is losing effectiveness. What ultimately determines whether wealth survives over the long term is not how fast it grows, but how long it lasts. In uncertain times, risk management is becoming more important than returns themselves.

1. Uncertainty Has Become the Norm

In the past, decisions were often made within relatively stable economic cycles. Growth paths were clear, policy directions predictable, and risks mainly stemmed from individual judgment errors.
Today’s financial environment is fundamentally different. Geopolitical tensions, shifting monetary policies, supply chain restructuring, and technological disruptions have turned uncertainty from an occasional event into a permanent backdrop.

As predictability declines, the cost of a wrong decision increases. In such an environment, pursuing high returns through concentrated bets becomes increasingly dangerous.

2. The True Nature of Risk Is Irreversible Loss

Risk is often misunderstood as volatility. In reality, true risk is irreversible loss:

• Forced liquidation due to excessive leverage

• Chain reactions triggered by cash-flow breakdowns

• Deep drawdowns that take years to recover, if they recover at all

Returns can be delayed, but irreversible losses permanently restrict future opportunities. This is why professional investment frameworks prioritize “not losing money” before “making money.”

3. High Returns Often Come with High Fragility

In times of rising uncertainty, many seemingly attractive high-return opportunities are built on excessive risk exposure:

• Overconcentration in a single theme

• Excessive leverage

• Ignoring extreme scenarios

These strategies may perform well in favorable conditions, but once the environment shifts, their fragility is quickly exposed. The greatest danger lies not in visible fluctuations, but in hidden structural risks.

4. Risk Management Is the Greatest Advantage for Ordinary Investors

Compared with institutional investors, ordinary individuals do not have superior information or speed. Their real advantage lies in the ability to avoid unnecessary risks.
Effective risk management does not have to be complex:

• Maintain sufficient liquidity

• Avoid products you do not fully understand

• Limit exposure to any single asset

• Leave room for extreme events

These conservative choices often prove to be the most powerful tools for navigating long-term cycles.

5. Stability Does Not Mean Conservatism

Prioritizing risk does not mean rejecting returns; it means changing the order of priorities.
In uncertain times, true stability involves:

• Accepting imperfect returns

• Avoiding all-in bets

• Trading short-term excitement for long-term certainty

When risks are kept within tolerable limits, returns become meaningful. Otherwise, even high returns may turn out to be little more than temporary illusions.

Conclusion

The greatest mistake in an era of financial uncertainty is chasing returns with a mindset built for certainty.
A mature approach to wealth begins by asking, “What can I afford to lose?” before asking, “What can I gain?”
When risk comes first, returns have a chance to become a lasting outcome rather than a moment of luck.